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commodity prices

February energy prices declined, non-energy prices advanced–Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices fell 5 percent in February—ending seven months of gains—led by a 4 percent drop in crude oil prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Non-energy prices advanced by over 1 percent. Agricultural prices increased almost 2 percent, largely on higher prices for soybean meal (+12 percent), cocoa (+9 percent), maize and sorghum (+5 percent each). Fertilizer prices rose 2 percent, led by phosphate rock (+6 percent), DAP, and Urea (+2 percent each).

Energy and raw materials prices gained in December, beverages and fertilizer prices fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices gained 2 percent in December—the sixth consecutive monthly gain—led by a 6 percent increase in coal prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Agriculture prices declined marginally, as a 5 percent decline in beverages, led by cocoa (down 10 percent) outweighed a 2 percent increase in raw materials prices, led by cotton (up 6 percent) and natural rubber (up 5 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 5 percent, led by a 11 percent drop in urea.

Metals and mineral prices gained less than 1 percent. A large gain in iron ore (up 12 percent) was offset by declines in zinc and nickel. Precious metals prices declined 2 percent, led by a 1 percent decline in gold.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
Energy and raw material price indexes increased in December while beverage and fertilizer prices declined sharply.


OPEC’S grip on oil prices may be slipping: A historical perspective

John Baffes's picture

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) unsettled oil markets in September when it announced it would resume placing limits on oil production among its members, effectively reversing two years of unrestrained production.

But how much control can OPEC really exert over prices? History suggests that formal agreements to influence the price of a particular commodity eventually fall apart. OPEC’s own history also shows that the short term benefits of managing supplies become long term liabilities. In addition, the oil producing landscape has changed dramatically in recent years with the advent of nonconventional producers, notably the U.S. shale oil industry. These factors will test the oil exporting organization’s power to influence markets.

Depressed energy prices playing key role in lowering food commodity prices

John Baffes's picture

Energy prices play a key role in the determination of food prices. The post-2006 boom of food prices was partly driven by higher energy costs, and the weakness in energy prices since 2014 is expected to hold food commodity prices down in the future as well.

Argentina’s chance to leap ahead

Sri Mulyani Indrawati's picture

View from Villa 31 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. © Mary Stokes/World Bank

So far, 2016 has been a year filled with challenges and uncertainties. Global economic growth is weak, commodity prices remain low, and international trade isn’t picking up. In fact, voters around the world are questioning long-held beliefs in open markets, and populists are exploiting their fears by suggesting divisive policies and promising easy solutions to complex issues. Against this backdrop, it would seem that staying afloat is already a remarkable feat by any country.
But to make progress in the fight against poverty and to reactivate economic activity to provide opportunities for all, countries have to do much more. They have to tackle necessary and sometimes difficult reforms, deal with tradeoffs, but most of all, they need to stay focused on what is good for most people in the long-term.

Amid growing risks, will leaders protect the poor?

Sri Mulyani Indrawati's picture
© Ashraf Saad Allah AL-Saeed / World Bank

There is enough trouble out there to keep any policymaker up at night. Recent volatility has roiled Chinese and global stock markets, commodity prices have slumped, and security concerns are rising. All of this raises serious questions over the health of the global economy. This year could shape up to be risky, full of challenges and concerns for the fight against poverty.  
We ended 2015 with good news: For the first time in history, the number of extremely poor people dropped below 10% of the world’s population. The new Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris climate deal bring momentum to our effort to lift the remaining 700 million extremely poor people out of poverty while generating climate-smart economic growth.

Lifting of Iran sanctions could have major impact on energy markets

John Baffes's picture
With a lifting of sanctions in 2016, Iran could play a key role in energy markets but boosting capacity will require foreign investment, according to the World Bank’s latest edition of Commodity Markets Outlook.

Despite low commodity prices, growth prospects in low-income countries remain robust

Gerard Kambou's picture
Large agricultural sectors, remittances, and public investment have cushioned the impact of sharply weaker terms of trade in commodity-exporting low-income countries (LICs). Growth in LICs was flat in 2014, but is expected to pick up in 2015 and remain robust during 2016–17.  Declining commodity prices, however, are likely to increasingly put pressure on fiscal and current account balances of LICs that rely heavily on exports of energy and metals. Many commodity-exporting LICs have limited buffers to absorb this deterioration.

On booms and super-cycles: China and India's central role in global commodity markets

John Baffes's picture
Global commodity prices underwent an exceptionally strong and sustained boom beginning in 2000. Unlike a typical price cycle, this boom has been characterized as a “super cycle”, i.e., a demand-driven surge in commodity prices lasting possibly decades rather than years. Many researchers say this is the fourth “super cycle” of the past 150 years. The price super cycle has been attributed to strong growth in emerging markets.

Commodities (mostly) continue to tumble

John Baffes's picture

We just published our Commodity Market Outlook for the third quarter of 2015, and report that most prices declined in the second quarter of 2015 due to ample supplies and weak demand, especially in industrial commodities (see figure below).

Energy prices rose 12 percent in the quarter, with the surge in oil offset by declines in natural gas (down 13 percent) and coal prices (down 4 percent). However, energy prices fell on average to 39 percent below 2014 levels. Natural gas prices are projected to decline across all three main markets—U.S., Europe, and Asia—and coal prices to fall 17 percent. Excluding energy, our report notes a 2 percent decline in prices for the quarter, and forecasts that non-energy prices will average 12 percent below 2014 levels this year. Iran’s new nuclear agreement with the US and other leading governments, if ratified, will ease sanctions, including restrictions on oil exports from the Islamic Republic of Iran. Downside risks to the forecast include higher-than-expected non-OPEC production (supported by falling production costs) and continuing gains in OPEC output. Possible (less likely) upside pressures may come from closure of high-cost operations—the number of operational oil rigs in the US is down 60 percent since its November high, for example—and geopolitical tensions.