The main impact of the global financial crisis on the DRC economy is the slowdown in overall economic growth, which is projected to be 6 percent in 2009. With the crisis going on, the situation is likely to deteriorate. Two of the major sectors expected to drive DRC growth in 2009, i.e. infrastructure and mostly mining, have already been severely affected by the crisis.
Private Sector Development
In the last few years, Lesotho has made significant progress in macroeconomic performance (strong GDP growth, fiscal surplus, current account surplus, and high international reserves). Nevertheless, Lesotho remains exposed to economic developments in South Africa (through the monetary union and the pegged exchange rate) and relies heavily on workers’ remittances, customs revenues from SACU, and royalties for transfer of water to South Africa.
The impact of the financial crisis on Malawi has so far been limited. The financial sector is small and less sophisticated, with two (out of nine) commercial banks dominating the banking sector. Foreign direct and portfolio investment levels are very low. However, most commercial banks have reported difficulties accessing foreign credit lines. Furthermore, exchange rate movements in the west are having a negative impact on foreign aid inflows to Malawi.
The negative impact of the financial crisis on economic growth in Madagascar is expected to be relatively limited; growth is still likely to attain 7% in 2008. Over the medium term, declining demand in industrial countries is expected to affect strategic export oriented sectors such as mining, tourism, textiles and agribusiness. The depth of the banking sector in Madagascar is still very modest with deposits accounting for less than 9 percent of GDP.
Uganda has in the past few years showed impressive growth rates despite a number of shocks including prolonged drought, severe energy shortage and the adverse impact of high oil and food prices. Public finances are in good shape with a very favorable debt situation and the financial sector is sound and well-capitalized. Uganda is, therefore, entering the global economic slowdown in a relatively strong position.
When the storm hit, South Africa had been sitting on relatively strong fundamentals and emerging from a protracted period of economic expansion. The meltdown allowed “not-so-well-hidden” vulnerabilities to surface. Unemployment, inequality, poverty, crime, and HIV/AIDS still continue to plague the country. Agriculture, mining and manufacturing declined while the trade and current account deficit (CAD) widened.
The impact of the current global crisis on Angola’s economy can be divided into three parts. First, a marginal impact on the financial sector: no stock exchange, very small inter-banking credit markets, limited transaction flows with international markets (except via Portuguese Bank), low level of banking services, low ratio of loans to deposits, etc. Nonetheless, there was a decline of around 20% in demand deposits in foreign currency in November.
|The forum works through eight working groups that meet regularly to discuss issues such as tax and law, export, and tourism.|
Lorsque l'on parle du secteur de la microfinance au Niger, on entend souvent les termes de restructuration et de réforme, comme si la faible pénétration du crédit dans les zones rurales était forcément due à des institutions financières à restructurer et à réformer.
I gave the Jerome A.Chazen lecture at Columbia Business School the other day. The gist of my talk was that: