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“All Models are Wrong, but Some are Useful” - Using Risk Models to Rapidly Estimate Post Disaster Impacts

Emma Phillips's picture
Usually the first questions after a disaster are “How many people are affected?” and “What’s the damage?” We want to know the hard numbers on how many people were affected and the potential impact on the economy – difficult information to ascertain in the chaotic aftermath of a disaster. Understanding the situation on the ground takes coordination, data, and time – exactly what you’re often missing during a disaster. Using catastrophe risk models before a disaster occurs can improve coordination, provide critical data, and be done without time constraints.

In Côte d’Ivoire Every Story Counts 10: Twenty-four hours to start a business in Côte d’Ivoire

Jacques Morisset's picture
The story of a country’s economic development is often told through the lens of new roads, factories, power lines, and ports. However, it can also be told through the voices of everyday heroes, individuals who have taken action to improve their lives and those around them.
 
CEPICI

Stéphanie Quoioh is very definite about it: she owes her steady rise in the entrepreneurial world to the Center for Investment Promotion in Côte d’Ivoire (CEPICI), which took her under its wing. A year ago, this young entrepreneur created her startup business, Archive Expert, in less than 24 hours, thanks to CEPICI, which enormously facilitated the task.
 

We joined the food revolution—and you can, too

Nataliey Bitature's picture
Musana Carts, a business that provides clean, solar-powered street vending carts, aims to improve the lives of street vendors.
Musana Carts, a business that provides clean, solar-powered street vending carts, aims to improve the lives of street vendors in developing countries.

Africa’s urban areas are booming, experiencing a high urban growth rate over the last two decades at 3.5% per year. This growth rate is expected to hold into 2050. With this growth, street food is going to become one of the most important components of African diets. The formal sector will just not be able to keep up!
 
Enter my company, Musana Carts, which tackles the #FoodRevolution challenge from the end of the food value chain. Musana Carts, which currently operates in Uganda, streamlines and improves the production and consumption of street food.
 
Why did we decide to focus on street food?
 
Despite the illegal status of unlicensed street food vendors, who are regularly evicted from markets, street vending is an age old industry. Low income families spend up to 40% of their income in street food (Nri).  
 
People eat street food because it is affordable, abundant, delicious and has a local and emotional flavor. Street food plays a key role in the development of cities. It is the one place where the posh and the poor from all walks of life meet and forget their social differences for the few seconds it takes to savor a snack. 
 
Street foods tell a story. They capture the flavor of a nation and the pride of a tribe: in Uganda, the rolex, a rolled chapatti with an omelet, has been named one of the fastest growing African street foods. The minister for tourism made it the new Ugandan tourism product.
 

Traffic Risk in PPPs, Part III - Allocating Traffic Risk: Prophet & Loss

Matt Bull's picture

Photo: Munish Chandel | Flickr Creative Commons

This is the final blog in a three-part series on traffic risk in PPPs
 
As explained in the previous two blogs  Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting and Traffic Risk in PPPs, Part II: Bias in Traffic Forecasts  traffic risk is inevitable, given our imperfect ability to predict traffic and revenue a long way (often several decades) into the future. And what makes it harder is that there are often biases at play in the typical project environment, which can cause a skewness towards over-estimation rather under-estimation of traffic flows. This, of course, can then result in financial losses and distress for the project, as manifested in a number of high profile bankruptcies, renegotiations and bailouts in the toll road sector.

In the new PPIAF and GIF publication, Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk, we outline various ways in which governments, bidders and financiers can take important steps to reduce the amount of traffic risk in projects. But we also acknowledge that the use of, for example, industry-standard forecasting techniques, better due diligence and a more stable policy environment will only go so far in reducing traffic risk. The reality is that there will always be some risk in any project, regardless of the best endeavors taken by the project parties. So, the key question is, what should we do with traffic risk and who should be responsible for bearing that risk?

WTO TFA implementation: Learning from early results

Bill Gain's picture
The World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) spearheads a global effort to reduce trade costs, helping countries to connect to the global economy. Many countries have already made progress towards implementation of the TFA provisions, with support from the World Bank Group, the WTO, and other partners.
 

How can conflict-affected cities become better hosts to refugees? The case of Afghanistan

Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez's picture
Like many other developing countries, Afghanistan is urbanizing rapidly. Today, a quarter of the country’s over 30 million people live in urban areas, with many more moving to cities to find jobs and lead better lives.

Unlike many other places, though, cities in Afghanistan face an added, complex layer of challenge—conflict.

In Afghanistan, conflict is a major driver of migration into cities. Instability in large areas of the country is forcing refugees and internally displaced people into cities—particularly the capital city of Kabul. The thing is: Kabul doesn’t yet have adequate infrastructure and capacity to effectively host these “newcomers.”

What can be done?

To help Afghan cities better address the “3-way challenge” of urbanization, conflict, and forced displacement, the World Bank is working on a series of projects that aim to:
  • Provide basic services to selected—mostly informal—neighborhoods in Kabul, such as roads, sanitation, water, and lighting;
  • Support Kabul to improve its municipal finance management systems;
  • Support the institutional and policy framework for urban development in Afghanistan;
  • Strengthen city planning, management and service delivery in five provincial capital cities.

In this video, you will learn more from World Bank Senior Director Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez (@Ede_WBG) and Practice Manager Catalina Marulanda on how cities and communities in Afghanistan are building up their capacity and resilience to better host refugees and other displaced populations.

Animating my thoughts about disability

James Dooley Sullivan's picture

Last December, James Dooley Sullivan packed his wheelchair and travelled to Jamaica. Sullivan, an animator and visual arts video editor at the World Bank Group, wanted to see first-hand what it’s like to be disabled in a developing country. He shares his experience and his own history in a video and a series of blog posts.

I shudder every time I think about the external force created when I hit the tree and how that force coursed through my snowboard and up my left leg, which shattered, and on up into my spine, which broke in two. It lasted only a second, but I will never stop thinking about that pressure. Now, I have a new pressure to think about: Pressure Sore. 

Sustainable domestic financing – a critical ingredient to driving immunisation progress

Kirsten Mathieson's picture
Health worker injecting vaccine to child. Legazpi City, Albay, Philippines.
Photo: Kenneth Pornillos / World Bank

Big results, require big ambitions and there are few bigger for primary healthcare than universal immunization coverage. Governments have committed to this through the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and the Addis Declaration on Immunisation (ADI). And while there has been good progress over the last decade – 86% of children globally now receive basic vaccinations – far too many children are still missing out. One in seven children under the age of one is still excluded from basic immunisation.

Trouble with pre-analysis plans? Try these three weird tricks.

Owen Ozier's picture
Pre-analysis plans increase the chances that published results are true by restricting researchers’ ability to data-mine.  Unfortunately, writing a pre-analysis plan isn’t easy, nor is it without costs, as discussed in recent work by Olken and Coffman and Niederle. Two recent working papers - “Split-Sample Strategies for Avoiding False Discoveries,” by Michael L.

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